13.9 Million Homes Could Change the Housing Market by 2036

A major generational shift is developing in the U.S. housing market. Millions of homes currently owned by Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation could change hands over the next decade.

According to Realtor.com research reported by Florida Realtors, approximately 13.9 million owner-occupied homes could be released between 2026 and 2036.

At first glance, that sounds like a huge wave of new housing inventory. But the details tell a much more interesting story.

What the Numbers Show

Realtor.com estimates Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation currently occupy approximately 36.7 million homes they own. By 2036, that number is projected to fall to approximately 22.8 million.

The difference represents homes that may become available as older homeowners downsize, relocate, enter different living arrangements, transfer properties to family members, or leave their homes for other reasons.

Most of These Homes Will Not Be Starter Homes

This may be the most important part of the research for today's buyers.

Approximately 9.9 million homes, or about 71% of the total, are expected to have three or four bedrooms.

Another approximately 3.6 million homes are expected to have five or more bedrooms.

By comparison, only about 380,000 homes with two bedrooms or fewer are projected to be released during the decade.

Why Could Starter Homes Remain Scarce?

One reason is that many older homeowners who own smaller homes also own them free and clear.

Realtor.com's research found that among owners ages 70 to 79, approximately 72.8% of starter-home owners had no mortgage.

Without a mortgage payment, some homeowners may have less financial pressure to move, which can keep smaller and potentially more affordable homes off the market longer.

What Could This Mean for Boca Raton?

Boca Raton has a wide range of housing, from condominiums and smaller residences to established single-family neighborhoods, gated communities, and luxury properties.

Because the national trend is concentrated heavily in three-, four-, and five-plus-bedroom homes, this transition could eventually become particularly relevant to larger South Florida single-family properties.

However, the 13.9 million figure is a national projection. It does not tell us exactly how many homes will become available in Boca Raton, Delray Beach, Highland Beach, Boynton Beach, or other local communities.

Local supply, migration, property insurance, taxes, new construction, HOA costs, condominium conditions, and buyer demand will continue to influence individual South Florida markets.

How Could Buyers and Sellers Be Affected?

Move-Up Buyers Could Create a Chain Reaction

More family-sized inventory could potentially help other parts of the housing market as well.

Imagine a homeowner currently living in a smaller home who wants to move into a four-bedroom property.

If more larger homes become available, that homeowner may finally have enough choices to make the move.

Their existing home could then become available to another buyer.

In that way, additional inventory higher up the housing ladder can sometimes help create additional choices at lower price points too.

Should Buyers Wait Until More Homes Become Available?

This research does not suggest that buyers should simply wait until 2036.

The transition is expected to happen gradually throughout the decade. Individual buying decisions should still be based on personal finances, lifestyle, and current local opportunities.

Buyers should continue evaluating:

• Mortgage rates
• Monthly affordability
• Down payment and cash reserves
• Property insurance
• Property taxes
• HOA or condominium fees
• Available inventory
• Expected length of ownership
• Neighborhood and lifestyle needs

Should South Florida Sellers Be Concerned?

This report alone is not a reason to rush to sell.

The transition is expected to take place over many years, and South Florida housing demand is influenced by far more than demographics.

What this trend does reinforce is the importance of understanding your home's competitive position.

If buyers eventually have more comparable properties to choose from, homes that are priced correctly, presented well, and marketed professionally may have an advantage.

Could This Affect Future Home Values?

Additional housing supply can reduce upward price pressure in some markets, particularly when demand does not increase at the same pace.

However, this research does not support predicting a broad decline in Boca Raton or South Florida home values.

Future home values will continue to depend on factors such as:

• Local housing inventory
• Buyer demand
• Population and migration
• Mortgage rates
• Florida insurance costs
• Employment and economic conditions
• New construction
• Neighborhood desirability
• Property condition

What Could This Mean for Palm Beach County?

Palm Beach County could experience very different effects depending on property type, neighborhood, and price point.

Established single-family communities with a high concentration of longtime owners may eventually experience more turnover.

Larger homes could also face more competition if additional properties become available while buyer demand remains stable.

At the same time, first-time buyers could continue facing limited entry-level inventory because relatively few starter homes are projected to be released nationally.

What Should Homeowners Do Now?

There is no need to make a real estate decision solely because of a national demographic projection.

But if you expect to sell, downsize, relocate, or buy another home within the next several years, understanding your position today can help you plan more intelligently.

Useful questions include:

• What is my home worth today?
• How many similar homes are currently for sale?
• How quickly are comparable homes selling?
• Are sellers making price reductions?
• What condition are competing properties in?
• Who is the likely buyer for my home?
• What would my next housing options look like?

The Bottom Line

America is entering an important generational housing transition.

Realtor.com projects that approximately 13.9 million homes could be released by Baby Boomers and Silent Generation households through 2036.

But this should not be interpreted as a sudden flood of inexpensive homes.

Most of the projected housing turnover involves family-sized and larger homes, while relatively few starter properties are expected to become available.

For Boca Raton, Palm Beach County, and South Florida, the real impact will depend on which homes become available, where they are located, their condition, their price, and how much buyer demand exists at that time.

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